Industry awaits April 2nd tariff decisions – April 1, 2025 Update
The Freightos Weekly Update keeps you informed on international freight with key economic data, demand trends, and rate insights.
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Weekly highlights
Ocean rates – Freightos Baltic Index
- Asia-US West Coast prices (FBX01 Weekly) decreased 2% to $2,187/FEU.
- Asia-US East Coast prices (FBX03 Weekly) increased by 1% to $3,369/FEU.
- Asia-N. Europe prices (FBX11 Weekly) fell by 2% to $2,512/FEU.
- Asia-Mediterranean prices (FBX13 Weekly) decreased by 9% to $3,228/FEU.
Air rates – Freightos Air index
- China – N. America weekly prices increased 7% to $5.65/kg.
- China – N. Europe weekly prices decreased 2% to $3.79/kg.
- N. Europe – N. America weekly prices fell 2% to $2.41/kg.
Analysis
President Trump has scheduled a Wednesday Rose Garden event for his tariff plan unveiling, and among the things that seem destined to remain extremely uncertain right up to the last minute is whether tariffs announced on Wednesday will be effective immediately or on some future date.
And though Trump says he’s decided on a course of action other reports have the administration vacillating still. One major question is whether the White House will opt for reciprocal tariffs of varying levels on specific trading partners or impose a global tariff on all imports.
It also remains unclear how the policy will reconcile the stated goals of raising revenue and increasing domestic manufacturing through tariffs, with the message that tariffs are aimed at eliciting concessions from other countries which could lead to the removal of the US tariffs.
In addition to the reciprocal/global decision, the pause of the 25% tariffs on USMCA-covered imports from Canada and Mexico is also set to expire tomorrow, and federal agencies will deliver the president’s requested state of trade report –- which, among an array of policies, could be the basis for a 60% tariff on China –- today as well.
One firm tariff roll out date – barring another last-minute shift – is April 3rd when the US will apply a 25% tariff to all automotive imports. This as well as the Mexico/Canada deadline has driven a surge in cross-border trucking as shippers rush to beat the rollouts, and a last-minute flurry of air chartering for the same reason. Projections of continued US ocean freight import strength to start Q2 may suggest that the prevailing uncertainty is leading many ocean shippers to continue to frontload until the tariff landscape becomes clear.
But despite the possible current demand strength, transpacific container rates have fallen below last year’s floor in recent weeks, with Asia – Europe prices also easing past last year’s low as this lane enters its slow season. Carriers will try to push prices back up with start of month GRIs and an increase in blanked sailings – which may indicate that the transition to the new alliance configurations is making progress. Reports of year on year scheduled capacity increases on the major lanes suggest that carriers are also contending with the effects of fleet growth and voiding sailings in response.In air cargo, more signs of weakening China-US e-commerce demand include cancellations of BSAs and charters, new forwarder charters opening up, observations of increasing capacity and some forwarder expectations for lower volumes and rates in Q2. Freightos Air Index data for China – US cargo nonetheless shows rates increased about 15% to $5.65/kg in the last month, possibly reflecting some tariff pull forward ahead of April 2nd on the spot market. Asia – Europe prices have also increased over the past month to $3.79/kg, about 13% higher than a year ago.
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